Free PDF The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation Ahead
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The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation Ahead
Free PDF The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation Ahead
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Review
“I bought the book, and it's amazing. It presents some complicated data very simply.”—Rush Limbaugh
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About the Author
Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Great Depression Ahead among many other economic and financial books. He is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation and founder of Dent Research, which publishes Survive and Prosper, Boom and Bust and The HS Dent Forecast.
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Product details
Paperback: 368 pages
Publisher: Portfolio; Reprint edition (August 25, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9781591847885
ISBN-13: 978-1591847885
ASIN: 1591847885
Product Dimensions:
5.5 x 0.9 x 8.4 inches
Shipping Weight: 11.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.0 out of 5 stars
353 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#199,590 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
I finally found someone who wrote a book on the economic topic that I think is largely ignored: the coming retirement of millions of baby-boomers and how that is going to effect the economic landscape for the next 30 years. Harry Dent is spot on in recognizing how this shift is likely to cause extremely large changes in spending habits for millions of individuals, and, more importantly, what that means to folks like me that are much younger (37).Mr. Dent does a marvelous job developing his thesis with various graphs supporting the notion that as people age their spending habits change. But that's about as far as he goes. As others have noted, he quickly loses focus (and credibility in my opinion) when he jumps into all sorts of other "wave" theories. This starts in chapter 2 and continues for the rest of the book. I was totally captured by the first chapter (thesis) and by chapter 2 or 3 I just started skimming as he runs terribly off topic. Mr. Dent is rather like a conspiracy theorist: if you believe in one conspiracy you believe in them all. Dent believes in one wave (the demographic wave) but then goes on in nausiating fashion to show a bunch of other waves, which in my opinion are used by fanatics who are trying to sell a product rather than real science.Dent's got an excellent theory and the data to support what will happen to spending levels in different areas over the next 30 years: why the heck is he talking about solar activity? He could have written a detailed book, almost an industry-by-chapter- about exactly what his data shows.But he got lazy. And moreover, he loses credibility because every few pages he says something akin to: "if you go to my website I'll send you a newsletter and you can follow along as we go." Guess what? To get Mr. Dent's data in any useful form, you'll have to pay for a subscription.Too bad: Dent could have been a really great author. He could have developed this topic and gone into a mainstream career as the go-to authority on the demographic shift that's about to occur. But in the end you end up feeling like he's more a snake-oil salesman than a true professional.What could have been isn't!
Harry is dent is wrong as off now..2016 is great for Gold and bad for dollar.If I listened to him I would not have gained 300% on my mining stocks, 20% in metals, and infact lost 6% in the dollar value.Although he did alot of thinking - whats the point if wrong
Harry Dent's first book was spectacular. It remains the only compelling analysis of the ups and downs of the stock market that I've ever read. A tough act to follow ! His second book, The Demographic Cliff, was disappointing. According to his own analysis, the economic impact of so-called cliff in the USA will probably not be significant....although it probably will have great impact elsewhere. Unlike his first book, which was precisely argued and highly focused, the follow up rambles on and on about everything under the sun.
I listened to only 4 of the 9 disks of this audio book because it was getting very repetitive. The one thing that stands out to me in this book is the author's repeated prediction of a "financial crisis" in early 2014. That never happened. The demographic approach to economic predicting is intriguing but I don't think it's as much an indicator as it's made out to be in this book. There was a segment on Fox Business News about a year ago with Harry Dent & Charlie Gasparino where Stuart Varney asked Harry about Art Laffer's stock market prediction and Harry answered "I don't take stock market advice from people who've never had sex". Don't know what that's all about but I think it says a lot more about Harry Dent than it does about Art Laffer.
While there was interesting information on demographics, cycles and a perceived future economic outlook, the book was not easy to read. Many of the charts were difficult to interpret and many sentences rambled on and needed to be reread. The most disappointing aspect was the lack of many specific recommendations on how to prepare for the projected massive economic downturn. Part of the disappoint had to do with my expectations that there would be several investment recommendations (as advertised). But it all condensed down to 'sell stocks and assets and keep cash'. I guess I just wanted something else.
Lots of great data and facts, but the author tends to ramble on about things which are quite unattached to the theme, ie, direct marketing. Although I agree that most of the developing world will run into a prolonged period of slow growth (decades at least) and low inflation as a result of a change in the ratios of young (the future for formations of new households) and the old (down-sizers and dyers) I doubt anyone's ability to call this out to a specific year. IMHO, there are just too many other dynamics which impact economies, e.g. energy prices, interest rates, wars, etc.. But there is no question that changing demographics will be a relentless headwind for China and most developed nations. I charted the change in those 24 and younger in the US vs those 65 and older as young/old. This ration change from nearly 4 in the 1980s to (based on BLS forecasts) to about 1.6 in 2030. Us seniors just give stuff away (clothing, furniture, tools etc.) now to make room. This diminishes the need to make new stuff which, in turn, diminishes hiring for manufacturing. I suggest that anyone who wishes to understand this, should read several books - at least, and do a bit of his/her own primary research. I conclude that Dent does know his facts,.
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